Here’s where the Greggs share price could end the year

The Greggs (LSE:GRG) share price outlook for the rest of 2025 is shaped by a mix of valuation metrics, financial health, and broader strategic and consumer trends. Personally, I’m not convinced Greggs shares should appreciate from here, but sometimes the market surprises us all. Let’s take a closer look.

The valuation screams ‘stay away’

Greggs’ forward valuation metrics for the next three years show a company with a steadily declining price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It moves from 14.1 times in 2025, 13.7 times in 2026, and 13.2 times in 2027. These figures are more reasonable than many high-growth consumer stocks and suggest that, at least on a headline basis, Greggs is not excessively expensive.

The dividend yield is also on a rising trend, moving from 3.57% in 2025 to 3.89% by 2027. This is attractive for income-focused investors, especially when combined with a payout ratio that remains just above 50%, indicating sustainability.

However, net debt is forecast to increase from £374.6m in 2025 to £387m in 2026, before easing slightly to £358.4m in 2027. This rising leverage could become a concern if earnings growth stalls or if interest rates remain elevated.

A very telling multiple

The price-to-earnings-to-growth-and-dividends (PEGY) ratio is a very useful way of assessing the value of a stock. It can also be adjusted for net debt or cash.

I’ve been kind to Greggs in this calculation, removing the downward trend in earnings per share for 2024-2025. As such, the net-debt adjusted PEGY ratio for Greggs (using 2025–2027 growth averages) is approximately 2.3. This figure is well above the ‘fair value’ benchmark of 1. This tells us that the shares are overvalued relative to their combined growth, leverage, and yield.

This elevated PEGY suggests that, even with a solid dividend, Greggs’ modest growth and rising net debt leave little margin for price appreciation unless earnings growth accelerates significantly .

Broader concerns

Personally, I’m concerned that Greggs may be reaching saturation point. The brand has expanded aggressively, with plans for 140-150 net new store openings in 2025 alone, but the UK market is nearing its limit for viable new locations.

International expansion has not been successful before, and the company’s core offering — affordable baked goods — may not be on-trend in an improving economy. The rise of health-conscious eating, combined with the growing use of weight-loss drugs and potential regulatory action on unhealthy foods, could erode demand for Greggs’ traditional products.

Despite these concerns, Greggs retains significant brand value, with a loyal customer base and strong recognition across the UK. Some investors may be attracted to the company’s rising dividend and consistent payout history, which offer a measure of stability in uncertain times. The dividend yield, while not exceptional, is competitive, and the payout ratio remains sustainable.

Ending the year

The average price target of £23.13 suggests the stock could push up by 21%. I’m not so convinced, noting the above earnings metrics. For me, metrics are the starting point for any successful investment. And simply, I think Greggs shares look too expensive to be considered by investors. Given continued support from retail investors, however, I imagine it will defy gravity and trade around £20 come year’s end.

The post Here’s where the Greggs share price could end the year appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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James Fox has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Greggs Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.