Despite its strong H1 results, Barclays’ share price still looks over 50% underpriced to its fair value

Barclays’ (LSE: BARC) share price has risen 76% this year from its 5 August low of £2.06. This has elevated it to around levels not seen since April 2010.

Such a rise is often seen by some investors as reason enough not to buy a stock. The thinking is that surely it cannot go much higher after such a run.

But this is based on the false premise that price and value are the same thing, and they are not. Price is simply whatever the market will pay for any stock at any given time. Value is what the share is worth, based on the underlying business’s fundamentals.

Appreciating this and competently determining a number on the price/value gap is key to long-term profits, in my experience. This comprises several years as a senior investment trader and salesman and 35 years as a private investor.

With this in mind, I looked closer at Barclays’ business and ran the key numbers.

The underlying business

The bank’s H1 2025 results saw pre-tax profit rise 24% year on year to £5.2bn (from £4.2bn). This outstripped analysts’ estimates of £4.96bn. Income increased 12% to £14.9bn (from £13.3bn).

Return on tangible equity (ROTE) was 12.3% against H1 2024’s 9.9%. Unlike return on equity, ROTE does not include intangible elements such as goodwill.

All its key operating divisions delivered double-digit ROTE in Q2 2025. This strong performance continues to reflect the bank’s strategic switch towards fee-based rather than interest-based income.

However, it also managed to increase its net interest income (NII) by 17% to £3.677bn, largely through increased mortgage activity. NII is the difference in money made from interest rates received from loans and paid on deposits.

These strong figures enabled it to announce a £1bn buyback, which tend to support share price gains over time.

A risk to Barclays is any deterioration in the economic growth prospects in its key markets, as banks’ fortunes broadly reflect these. This could arise at some point from further US tariffs on its trading partners or reciprocal tariffs by them.

That said, analysts forecast that the bank’s profits will grow by 6.9% each year to end-2027. And it is this growth that is the key driver for any firm’s share price (and dividends) over the long term.

How does the valuation look?

Barclays’ 8.7 price-to-earnings ratio is bottom of its peer group, which averages 10.6. These banks include NatWest at 8.9, HSBC at 10.8, Standard Chartered at 11.2, and Lloyds at 11.5.

It is also last in the group on its price-to-book ratio of 0.7 compared to its competitors’ average of 1. And it is last again on its 2.1 price-to-sales ratio against a 2.8 average for its peers.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis pinpoints where any firm’s share price should be trading, based on cash flow forecasts for the underlying business.

The DCF for Barclays shares shows they are 51% undervalued at their current £3.62 price. Therefore, the fair value for them is £7.39.

I already have holdings in HSBC and NatWest, so to own another bank would unbalance my portfolio. However, I think Barclays is well worth considering for investors whose portfolios it suits.

The post Despite its strong H1 results, Barclays’ share price still looks over 50% underpriced to its fair value appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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HSBC Holdings is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Simon Watkins has positions in HSBC Holdings and NatWest Group Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Barclays Plc, HSBC Holdings, Lloyds Banking Group Plc, and Standard Chartered Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.