If I invest £20,000 in National Grid shares, how much passive income can I get?
Even after a slight dividend cut following a new long-term strategy, National Grid (LSE:NG.) shares remain a popular income stock among British investors. And even after the recent payout adjustment, the dividend yield remains fairly robust at 4.1%.
Therefore, if someone were to invest £20,000 today, they could expect to unlock a passive income of roughly £820 a year.
However, the actual payout could be far more lucrative. Thatâs because, providing management can continue to execute, dividends are expected to rise over the coming years. And that means todayâs near-4% yield could expand to something far more exciting in the long run.
With that in mind, letâs explore whatâs on the horizon for National Gridâs dividend.
Long-term income forecast
As the UKâs leading energy infrastructure enterprise, the company enjoys a steady stream of cash flow. After all, regardless of what the economy’s doing, homes and businesses still need access to electricity, making it a popular defensive stock.
Moreover, National Grid’s playing a central role in the UKâs and the USâs electrification and decarbonisation strategies. This organically creates favourable long-term demand trends that analysts believe will support a steadily rising dividend.
| Year | Dividend Per Share Forecast | Forward Dividend Yield |
| 2026 | 49.6p | 4.3% |
| 2027 | 52.6p | 4.6% |
| 2028 | 55.8p | 4.9% |
| 2029 | 59.3p | 5.2% |
| 2030 | 62.9p | 5.5% |
If the projections are correct, then dividends are on track to grow by an average of 6.1% a year between now and 2030. Thatâs an inflation-beating projection further emphasising the attractive defensive qualities of this enterprise. But what do all these numbers mean in terms of passive income?
Suppose I invest £20,000 in National Grid today? In that case, I’d end up with roughly 1,744 shares. And if I didnât reinvest any of these dividends over the next five years, the total income this investment would generate would be around £4,887.
Risk versus reward
As encouraging as National Gridâs outlook appears, there are still some potential threats for investors to keep an eye on. Perhaps the most apparent is regulatory intervention. As a regulated monopoly, National Gridâs profits are constantly scrutinised. And in the UK, governing body Ofgem’s already proposed a review of allowed returns that limit its permitted profits.
For a business carrying significant levels of debt, having regulators handicap earnings could result in management being unable to execute its growth and deleveraging strategy effectively. Thatâs particularly problematic if interest rate cuts are postponed due to stubborn inflation. And the risk’s only compounded if the firmâs recent infrastructure investments fail to deliver on their expected performance.
The bottom line
Even after taking interest expenses into account, National Gridâs rebased dividends look fairly sustainable. The underlying payout ratio sits close to 53%, giving some wiggle room to maintain shareholder rewards even if regulators decide to throw a spanner in the works. Having said that, I prefer investing in companies that have more autonomy over their futures. Thatâs why, despite its popularity, Iâm not interested in investing in National Grid shares.
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Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended National Grid Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
