At a 5-year low, is it time to call it a day on my Greggs shares?

It’s hard to believe that just over a year ago, Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares were trading at over Â£3 a share. In September 2024, they were up 176% from their pandemic low of Â£1.15.

There was a point when they were one of the top-performing shares in my portfolio. Now at Â£1.50, they’re trading at a five-year low, and I think it’s time to call it a day. I’ve hung on to hope for over a year, using every excuse in the book to convince myself they’ll bounce back.

As a strict adherent to billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s trading ideology, I try to never sell at a loss. But the reality is, some companies never recover.

In fairness, Greggs isn’t the only high street foodie having a bad year. I’m sure the folks at Domino’s Pizza wouldn’t mind grabbing a pint with them and comiserating together. WH Smith would be right there behind them.

The truth is, diets are changing and there may not be a future for carb-heavy take-out food on the UK’s high streets. Despite its best efforts to introduce salads and sandwiches, the likes of Sainsbury’s and Tesco offer the same at a lower price.

But before I write off Greggs completely, what are the realistic chances of a recovery?

A value opportunity?

For me, it would take a miracle and probably many years to see any profit from my shares. But there’s an argument for new investors that this price level presents an opportunity. If it regains the favour of the public, the recovery could be spectacular.

Greggs’ trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio looks attractive, at 10.77. But with earnings in decline, its P/E growth (PEG) ratio’s actually high, at 2.09. That suggests earnings are declining at a rate faster than the price.

However, sales are outpacing the price, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.76. So that tells us that unusually high operational costs are hurting the bottom line. So it either needs to raise prices, which could hurt sales, or find a way to slash costs without reducing quality.

Unfortunately, much of the added cost comes from the National Insurance (NI) changes that were introduced in last year’s Budget overhaul. And with this year’s Autumn Budget threatening further tax hikes, things could get worse.

To mitigate these losses, Greggs has raised its prices (again) and paused the opening of new stores. That’s obviously not great for business, but thatâs often what happens when government policies hit companies — the costs get passed down to consumers.

So where does this leave us?

Greggs may be suffering, but there’s still some life in the old girl yet. With over 2,600 stores across the UK, it has almost double the coverage of McDonald’s.

With a strong brand and that much real estate, it’s unlikely to disappear overnight. So while the light at the end of the tunnel may be dim and far away, I’m hanging on to hope. I believe there’s still an opportunity here. For value investors keen to snap up some shares at a five-year low, it’s one worth considering.

For those more interested in a safer bet, I’ve recently covered several top-class defensive shares on the FTSE 100. In today’s market, you can never be too prepared.

The post At a 5-year low, is it time to call it a day on my Greggs shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Should you invest Â£1,000 in Greggs plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Greggs plc made the list?

See The Six Stocks

More reading

Mark Hartley has positions in Greggs Plc and Tesco Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Domino’s Pizza Group Plc, Greggs Plc, J Sainsbury Plc, Tesco Plc, and WH Smith. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.