I’m targeting £11,363 a year in retirement from £20,000 in Aviva shares!
Aviva (LSE: AV) shares are down 8% from their 12 November one-year traded high of £6.98. This has pushed the yield on 2024âs 35.7p dividend up to 5.6%, compared to the current 3.1% FTSE 100 average.
It is because yields move in the opposite direction to price if the annual dividend stays the same. But analysts forecast that dividend will be raised.
So, how much could I make from my £20,000 holding in the firm?
Are these forecasts solid?
Aviva has increased its dividends in each of the past three years â from 31p in 2022 to 35.7p in 2024. This generated average annual dividend yields of 7%, 7.7%, and 7.6%.
The engine behind these gains for Aviva â as with any firm — has been earnings growth. And these jumped nearly 30% over the three years.
A risk to them moving forward is any failure to integrate Direct Line optimally. Aviva expects £225m in cost synergies and £500m in capital synergies from the deal completed in July.
However, analysts forecast that the investment and insurance giantâs earnings will grow by a standout 18.4% a year to end-2027.
Do recent results support the view?
The firmâs H1 2025 results published on 14 August saw operating profit up 22% year on year to £1.068bn.
Its Wealth divisionâs assets under management rose 6% to £209bn, extending its position as the number one UK player. Meanwhile, its General Insurance premiums jumped 7% to £6.29bn, and its Health divisionâs premiums rose 14% to £1bn.
Aviva now expects an operating profit of £2bn by 2026.
These positive threads carried through into its Q3 trading update of 13 November. General Insurance premiums rose 12% to £10bn, and Wealth net flows increased 7.7%.
The firm added that it is on track to surpass its 2025 £2bn operating profit target early. As such, it has raised its 2025 target to âaround £2.2bnâ.
Positively as well, this includes around £150m from the integration of Direct Line.
How much dividend income can I make?
Based on its projected strong earnings growth analysts expect Avivaâs dividends to rise to 41.5p next year and 44.7p in 2027.
These would generate respective yields of 6.5% and 7% on the current share price.
On that 7% yield, my £20,000 holding in the firm would make me £20,193 in dividends after 10 years. This is also provided that these payouts are reinvested back into the stock.
This is a standard investment practice known as âdividend compoundingâ â similar to leaving savings to accrue in a bank account.
After 30 years on the same basis, this would rise to £142,330, although I have to remember that 30 years is a long time and dividends can go down as well as up during such a period. This would give a total value to the holding of £162,330 (including my £20,000 initial investment).
And that would pay me £11,363 a year in dividend income that I could use in my retirement.
My investment view
Given its strong earnings growth outlook and forecast rising dividend yield, I will be adding to my holding very soon.
That said, other high-yielding stocks with excellent earnings growth prospects have also caught my eye recently.
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Simon Watkins has positions in Aviva Plc. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
