Will the surging Nvidia share price double in 2026?

Despite fears of a tech sector bubble, Nvidia‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) share price has made further spectacular gains in 2025.

At $183.50 per share, the chipmaker’s price has risen 33% since 1 January. That’s a pretty tasty return, and if broker projections are accurate, Nvidia shares are set to accelerate next year.

Of the 64 brokers that analyse the company, one particularly bullish individual expects prices to leap to $253 per share by next Christmas. That represents a whopping 95% premium to today’s levels.

Yet analysts forecasts can often miss their target. So what can we realistically expect from this high-flying AI stock in 2026?

Market leader

Despite talk of a bubble, Nvidia’s so far showing no signs of weakness. In fact, sales of its graphic processing units (GPUs) — high-power chips essential for AI calculations — continue to trump expectations.

This reflects more than the company’s enormous market opportunity. Nvidia’s best-in-class chips are putting it in pole position to grow earnings, as another sales and profits beat in Q3 showed.

A $500bn order backlog for Blackwell and its other AI products highlights the scale of data centre demand. With expertise in software, networking, and infrastructure, too, it’s no surprise the firm’s a leader in the exploding server market.

The good news is that Nvidia isn’t just about AI either. It also has substantial growth opportunities in areas like gaming, robotics, automotive, and cloud and quantum computing.

What could go wrong?

The problem I have is that fears of an sector bubble are rising, not falling, as we move into 2026. Only time will tell whether AI models will become the revolutionary force many predict. But in the meantime, fresh share price volatility is possible.

The danger to Nvidia’s shares is worsened by their enormous valuation right now. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.4 times, it’s one of the most expensive AI stocks out there.

Never mind that this could put a cap on further share price gains. A high earnings multiple like this could prompt a full-blown correction if market confidence worsens.

But let’s forget about a market bubble for a moment. A P/E like this means that anything less than jaw-dropping trading news could prompt a pullback. And Nvidia faces a number of challenges that could weigh on future trading.

Demand for its product remains red hot, creating supply chain strains. The business has said it expects supply for its Blackwell chips to exceed supply “for several quarters” in 2026. It’s also cutting production of GeForce GPUs by 30% to 40% in the New Year, underlining the scale of the danger.

Elsewhere, sales to China, a crucial growth market, remain as trade tensions between Beijing and Washington simmer. There’s also growing competitive threats, as rival chipbuilders invest heavily in R&D and large customers reduce their reliance on a single supplier.

The bottom line

Nvidia is a top-quality US tech stock, but given its current valuation and the challenges it faces, I won’t buy it for my portfolio. But for growth investors with greater risk tolerance, I think it’s worth a close look.

The post Will the surging Nvidia share price double in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Royston Wild has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Nvidia. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.