Will the stock market crash in 2026? What the experts really think (and how investors can prepare)

Sensationalist news outlets love to jump on any opportunity to sow fear about a potential stock market crash. But far from the doom and gloom crowd, real market experts expect a rather more rational, boring outcome.

Let’s see what the most prominent voices have to say.

Subdued enthusiasm

While industry insiders are generally cautious, few expect a crash. Morgan Stanley notes âcontinued equity gains in 2026â with modest growth, as a lot of good news is already priced in. Fidelityâs 2026 outlook is that it âcould be another positive yearâ for the market — but investors shouldnât ignore risks.

Oppenheimer expects a bullish year with a âbroadening of the powerful rallyâ that began after 2022, supported by resilient earnings and moderating inflation. Goldman Sachsâ strategy group puts US recession odds at 25% and calls for continued expansion, with a baseâcase 7% stock market return and 10% earnings growth in 2026.

Meanwhile, Bloombergâs survey of Wall Street predictions has a base case of around 2.1% US real GDP growth and a supportive environment for risk assets.

The bearish crowd

However, some analysts are less optimistic. Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin warns of a â65% chance of a bear market in 2026â with average losses of 20%, explicitly positioning himself as the contrarian who sees a downturn ânobody elseâ is calling.

Meanwhile, David Rosenberg points out that in major surveys ânot a single economistâ is currently forecasting a recession in 2026, which he flags as a contrarian warning sign.

So what’s the play?

While crash fears may be overinflated, there are genuine risks to consider. Schwab has neatly condensed these as four potential pitfalls: AI bubble risk, sticky inflation, credit stresses and Washington gridlock. While these are largely US-centric issues, they would undoubtedly have a knock-on effect for the UK market.

This leaves two options: those fearing a crash could liquidate everything and wait until things improve but, if wrong, might end up buying back in at a higher price. My preferred strategy in uncertain times is weighting my portfolio towards recession-resistant stocks, such as healthcare, utilities or consumer staples.

These sectors tend to enjoy consistent demand, even during economic downturns. If nothing happens, I still benefit from mild growth — and if the market does crash, my losses are minimal.

One stock to consider

One good example worth further research is pharma giant GSK (LSE: GSK), recently recommended as a safe pick in 2026 by analysts at AJ Bell. It has a 3.5% yield backed by a solid dividend policy, clear roadmap and proven track record of resilience.

In its latest Q3 results, two of its core divisions enjoyed growth of 15%-16%, while vaccines remained steady with Â£2.7bn in sales. The best part is its highly-diversified pipeline of new drugs, many of which are in late-stage clinical trials. This is critical because like most pharmaceutical companies, it faces real risk from patent expiries. This typically results in a huge loss of revenue as generics flood the market.

If all trials are successful and the new drugs go to market, GSK should enjoy sufficient cash flow to cover any losses. While nothing’s ever guaranteed, historical performance is encouraging, with total returns of around 63% in the past five years.

The post Will the stock market crash in 2026? What the experts really think (and how investors can prepare) appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

Should you invest Â£1,000 in GSK right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if GSK made the list?

See The Six Stocks

More reading

Charles Schwab is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Mark Hartley has positions in GSK. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Aj Bell Plc, Charles Schwab, and GSK. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.