I was a fan of this 9p penny share until Donald Trump did this…
The hVIVO (LSE:HVO) share price has nearly doubled in two months, but that’s nothing out of the ordinary for this penny stock. Because after surging during the pandemic, it crashed 75%. Then a blistering 220% run saw it peak at 30p in mid-2024.
Since then? It’s cratered over 65% to 9p. Talk about a rollercoaster!
I jumped on this white-knuckle ride in late 2022 at 11p, then had another nibble at 29p. By December 2025, I was down by more than 50% and had half-forgotten about hVIVO because it was such a small position.
I considered cutting my losses over Christmas, but didn’t bother. Now I’m thanking my laziness as it jumped 50% this week. What’s going on?
HCT leader
As a quick reminder, hVIVO specialises in human challenge trials (HCTs). These involve volunteers being infected with a pathogen in a controlled environment to test vaccines. The firm is a global leader in this niche area and recruits through its own FluCamp platform.
Growth was impressive, with revenue rising from £20.2m in 2020 to £62.7m in 2024. By then, the business had turned profitable, started paying a dividend, and was targeting £100m in revenue by 2028.
hVIVO even moved into a new state-of-the-art facility in Canary Wharf in 2024. Billed as the worldâs largest commercial HCT centre, it has loads of high-tech quarantine bedrooms, significantly enhancing the capacity to run multiple trials simultaneously.
So the future was looking very bright for the company.
What went wrong?
Unfortunately things quickly unravelled. The share price first lurched down in November 2024 after Donald Trump won the election. Then again when he nominated Robert F Kennedy Jr to be his health secretary.
Kennedy was sworn in exactly a year ago yesterday (13 February), and hVIVO stock is down 59% since. The problem is that he’s a vaccine sceptic and the market priced in — correctly as it turned out — that this wouldn’t be positive for vaccine funding and clinical trials.
Consequently, revenue guidance for 2025 was lowered from £73m to £47m due to a subdued biotech funding environment and a number of HCT cancellations and postponements. Thanks Donald!
Management now expects a full-year loss for 2025, with the adjusted EBITDA margin shrinking from 26.2% in 2024 to mid-single digits.
Am I buying the dip?
The positive news recently was that ILiAD Biotechnologies had secured $115m in funding to develop a next-generation whooping cough vaccine. The US biotech expects to begin a pivotal phase III human challenge trial in 2026.
hVIVO has already signed a letter of intent with ILiAD, which would be the firmâs largest HCT to date. If converted to a contract, analysts at Stifel estimate it could be worth approximately £15m. Hence the stock’s big jump.
So, is hVIVO worth a look? Well, the company should return to growth this year, as a couple of acquisitions now position it as a “full endâtoâend service platform from preclinical through to Phase III across multiple therapeutic areas.”
Meanwhile, the firm has £14.3m in cash on the balance sheet and no debt. Therefore, it’s not in financial danger despite falling to a loss.
That said, the US biotech funding backdrop remains tricky, especially for vaccines. So investors considering this penny stock should expect volatility.
It’s not one I’m buying right now.
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Ben McPoland has positions in hVIVO Plc. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
