Has a 2026 stock market crash just come a whole lot closer?
The FTSE 100 might have climbed above 10,000 points, but I don’t think we can rule out a stock market crash this year. We never can — markets tend to crash when we’re not expecting it. The secret for investors? Be prepared, and look for opportunities during downturns.
Middle East turmoil is causing big upsets in some markets, as South Korea’s Kospi index just recorded a huge 12% fall. For now at least, UK and US markets are avoiding panic. The Footsie might have slipped 4% from its recent peak, but it’s still up 6% so far in 2026.
What should we do?
With the Brent crude oil price rising to more than $80 a barrel, there’s a clear temptation to look towards big oil companies. At BP, we see the share price up a bit since the attacks on Iran started — and it hit a 52-week high on Monday (2 March). But at the time of writing on 4 March, it’s retreated around 3% from that peak.
There’s a similar story at Shell. It made a new 52-week high on the same day — and it’s since declined nearly 5%. For both big oil stocks, the ups and downs of the past week fade into barely-noticeable ripples in their five-year share price charts. Over that timescale, BP is up 55%, while Shell has doubled.
Investors eyeing up oil shares really need to make their decisions based on long-term prospects, I’d say. And I see good arguments for both on those grounds. The forecast 5% dividend yield at BP seems particularly worthy of consideration. But I won’t buy either based on short-term shocks.
Long-term energy
What if there’s an energy stock that could have a rosy long-term future? One that also offers a massive forecast dividend yield of 11%? Yes, I know, I’ve given it away with the above chart. I’m talking of real estate investment trust (REIT) Greencoat UK Wind (LSE: UKW), one of my favourite Stocks and Shares ISA candidates.
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The share price is down since companies unceremoniously abandoned all those low-energy, net-zero targets. And there’s one thing in the numbers that makes me nervous. With February’s full-year results, the company posted a loss in 2025. And that’s not what high-yield dividends usually are made of.
Still, the board raised the dividend, and said it aims to keep it in line with CPI inflation. We need to keep our eyes sharp here, but I think it has to be worth considering.
What global risk?
What I really like about Greencoat is that it relies on wind. And there’s no shortage of that in the UK, or around the world. Winds of one direction or another are blowing almost everywhere. Also, we don’t have an atmospheric equivalent of the Strait of Hormuz for any nation to block.
So what about the stock market crash thing? This is one example of how we might look for opportunities in sectors currently in the headlines. Generally, I say stay calm, and look for good-value shares… but I see no need to rush into anything.
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Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Greencoat Uk Wind Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
