An 11.5% yield?! Here’s the dividend forecast for a hot income stock

Renewable energy income stocks currently offer impressive dividend yields. That’s because Investor sentiment in this space remains subdued due to higher interest rates and falling energy prices. And as a consequence, many of these shares are trading at discounted valuations.

NextEnergy Solar Fund‘s (LSE:NESF) one such enterprise with its shares trading close to a 20% discount to its net asset value, offering a staggering 11.5% yield. Yet despite this pessimism, the share price has actually been on the rise this year, climbing by 11% and outpacing many of its peers.

So is this just a short-term rally? Or are we looking at the start of a long-awaited rebound?

The bull case

As the name suggests, NextEnergy Solar focuses on investing in utility-scale solar energy infrastructure. The bulk of its asset portfolio consists of UK solar farms with some European exposure, totalling an 865 megawatt energy-generating capacity. For reference, that’s roughly enough to power 330,000 homes.

The business model’s simple. Generate clean electricity and sell it to the grid. The continuous need for electricity makes for a highly recurring revenue model that’s translated into relatively stable cash flows.

As with many renewable energy enterprises, the weather can slow things down. Yet, prudent capital allocation has enabled management to continuously hike dividends every year for the last 10 years, staying ahead of inflation. And even with the headwinds of falling electricity prices, the company’s robust cash coverage indicates that payouts will continue to flow to shareholders.

Dividends for its 2024 fiscal year totalled 8.43p. If the latest analyst forecasts prove accurate, that’s expected to increase to 8.68p by 2027. The growth rate’s hardly phenomenal. But with the yield already in double-digit territory, there remains a potentially lucrative income opportunity here. Even more so as the UK strives towards a Net-Zero energy grid by 2030.

What could go wrong?

If the extraordinary 11.5% dividend yield’s here to stay, why aren’t more investors rushing to buy shares? We’ve already touched on it – energy prices. While energy inflation’s certainly wreaked havoc on many households lately, the long-term trends suggest that electricity’s on track to get steadily cheaper over the next 20 years.

That’s great news for consumers, but less so for energy generators who operate with a lot of fixed costs. Lower prices mean less profit, which could eventually compromise dividends. And with just shy of £200m of debts and equivalents on its balance sheet, it could force management to sell off some of its assets at their currently discounted prices to cover upcoming loan maturities.

Pairing all this with the ever-increasing erratic behaviour of the weather results in a lot of uncertainty – the bane of the investing world.

The bottom line

All things considered, few income stocks can boast of their ability to maintain double-digit dividend yields. However, the lack of projected growth does give me pause. Even more so when considering other renewable energy firms like Greencoat UK Wind are preparing to ramp up their dividend rather than keep it stable.

With that in mind, I’m personally not rushing to buy. But that doesn’t mean the stock isn’t worthy of a closer look from opportunistic income investors.

The post An 11.5% yield?! Here’s the dividend forecast for a hot income stock appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.