It’s been a great 5 years for Lloyds shares. What next?
After years of limping along following the global financial crisis of 2007/09, Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) shares have sprung to life. Indeed, the past half-decade has been a great time to own stock in the Black Horse bank.
Lloyds shares soar
During the Covid-19 crisis, the share prices of British banks plunged in a near-existential crisis. On 25 September 2020, Lloyds shares closed at 24.72p, but had more than doubled by end-May 2021.
Over the next three years, Lloyds stock zigzagged along, but was pretty much unchanged by mid-March 2024. However, since then, this popular and widely held share has done shareholders proud. Also, 2025 has been a terrific calendar year so far, with the share price leaping by 41.5% over six months.
Over one year, this stock has jumped by 27.3%, easily outperforming the wider FTSE 100‘s 8.7% gain over this timescale. Also, the shares have surged by 147.1% over the past five years — one of the better times in history to own UK banking stocks.
Don’t forget dividends
As well as delivering market-beating capital growth, Lloyds shares have also paid a rising stream of dividends. Here are the bank’s last four yearly cash payouts:
| Year | Dividend |
| 2024 | 3.17p |
| 2023 | 2.76p |
| 2022 | 2.4p |
| 2021 | 2p |
Over four years, Lloyds’ dividend has risen by 58.5% — or 12.2% a year compounded — a welcome delight for income investors.
Disclosure: my wife and I bought this stock for our family portfolio in mid-2022, paying 43.5p a share. With the share price standing at 75.4p as I write, we are sitting on a paper gain of 73.5% in three years. Not bad for a ‘boring’, blue-chip share, agreed?
No longer cheap?
Though we are pleased with the returns from our Lloyds shares over the past three years, I don’t expect these above-market gains to continue.
At the current price, this stock trades on nearly 12.2 times trailing earnings, delivering an earnings yield of 8.2% a year. The dividend yield has slipped to 4.2% a year. To me, these are not the fundamentals of a screaming buy.
That said, I do expect modest future gains from our Lloyds holding, especially if these three trends prove positive:
1. Rising UK economic growth. Lloyds is considered a bellwether for British commerce, so if the economy does well, so too should the bank.
2. A healthy housing market. As Britain’s largest mortgage lender, Lloyds has huge exposure to UK domestic property and will benefit if house prices keep stable.
3. Limited loan losses and bad debts. Though loan provisions have been creeping up, they are still low in historic terms. If credit conditions do stay favourable, that’s a bonus for banks.
Of course, if these trends reverse, then Lloyds shares could suffer. Also, broker estimates for 12 months from now are clustered around the current share price. Hence, brokers don’t expect great guns from this share over the next year.
In summary, Lloyds’ long-suffering owners have had a terrific five years, boosted by rising dividends and large share buybacks. While I expect further gains to come, and have no intention of selling at this time, I do not expect the next half-decade to be as rewarding as the last five years! As a deep-value investor, I would not be a big buyer of Lloyds stock at current levels.
The post It’s been a great 5 years for Lloyds shares. What next? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
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The Motley Fool UK has recommended Lloyds Banking Group. Cliff D’Arcy has an economic interest in Lloyds Banking Group shares. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services, such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool, we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
