What’s next for the Tesco share price?

The Tesco (LSE:TSCO) share price is now at a modest premium — 0.45% — to the average share price target compiled by 13 City analysts. Now, these analysts can be wrong about companies, but after a good run up in recent years, there’s evidence that Tesco shares appear to be trading near or at fair value.

Let’s take a closer look.

Market dominance

Tesco is a stalwart of the UK grocery scene, with 28.4% of the market, according to Kantar. Tesco’s scale provides meaningful advantages, from negotiating power with suppliers to the ability to invest heavily in digital infrastructure and loyalty schemes.

Its Clubcard programme, in particular, has helped to drive customer retention and provide valuable data insights, reinforcing its competitive edge. Alongside this, the group has maintained solid cash generation, supporting both dividends and share buybacks, which bolsters investor confidence.

That combination of resilience, efficiency, and shareholder returns is why it typically trades at a modest premium to some of its peers.

What the valuation says

Tesco’s valuation looks reasonable against its fundamentals. The shares trade on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.9 times for FY26, falling to 14.4 times in FY27 and then to 12 times by FY28. This suggests the market is pricing in steady but not excessive earnings growth.

The dividend yield is forecast at 3.3% in 2025, rising to 3.9% by 2028, offering an income stream that remains competitive in the UK retail sector. Importantly, dividend coverage improves over time, with payout ratios at 52.7% in 2026, and 51.6% in 2027. This underlines the sustainability of distributions while leaving room for reinvestment and buybacks.

Now, there’s nothing in these numbers that screams overvaluation. However, the forward P/E is now elevated versus every period over the last five years. And for comparison, Marks & Spencer trades around 14 times forward earnings. This falls to 10.6 times and then 9.8 times in the following years.

Meanwhile, J Sainsbury’s valuation looks cheaper than Tesco. The P/E falls from 14.9 times in 2026 to 12.8 times in 2027 and 11.6 times in 2028. The dividend yield is also elevated, rising from 4.8% to 5.2%. The payout ratios is higher than Tesco but still manageable.

The bottom line

Tesco’s outlook will be shaped by a mix of defensive strengths and external pressures. While market share, scale, and digital leadership should continue to underpin earnings, investors must weigh risks from food inflation, the Chancellor squeezing consumer budgets, and intensifying competition from budget chains like Aldi and Lidl.

Meanwhile, cost-saving initiatives and buybacks offer support, but much of this optimism may already be reflected in the share price. With rivals trading on cheaper multiples, Tesco’s premium position relies on execution and resilience in a challenging retail landscape. Personally, I’m starting to believe the stock is going to tread water for a little while. Investors therefore, may wish to consider looking look elsewhere or waiting for a better entry point.

The post What’s next for the Tesco share price? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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James Fox has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended J Sainsbury Plc and Tesco Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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