Could the Barclays share price be the FTSE 100’s big winner in 2026?

The Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price has climbed 75% in the last 12 months. But with the way 2026 is shaping up, I donât think a repeat performance next year is out of the question.

Unlike other FTSE 100 banks, Barclays combines a significant investment banking operation with its retail operations. And this could be a big advantage over the next 12 months.

Investment banking

Exactly how much of Barclaysâ total sales come from investment banking varies from year to year. Itâs a cyclical business, so revenues can fluctuate over time.

In 2024, though, the investment banking division accounted for around 50% of total revenues. And that wasnât an especially strong year for the industry.

Given this, I think a strong year for mergers, acquisitions, and initial public offerings (IPOs) could be a powerful force behind the Barclays share price. And thatâs my expectation in 2026.

One reason for this is the prospect of lower interest rates. But another is the expected IPOs of some big names that the stock market is likely to be excited about.

Big names

Itâs widely expected that OpenAI â the company behind ChatGPT â is going to look to IPO in 2026. The firm itself has been quiet on this, but investors are starting to think itâs coming.

On top of this, SpaceX â Elon Muskâs reusable rocket business â is also set to hit the public markets. And in this case, the company has started making its preparations.

Thereâs also Anthropic â another artificial intelligence (AI) name â thatâs making tangible plans. So 2026 could be a huge year for IPO activity and investment banks stand to benefit.

Barclays will have competition from the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan when it comes to these specific names. Iâm not ruling it out, but Iâm not counting on it either.

Beyond 2026

In general, I think 2026 could be a big year for IPOs. And whether or not itâs the headline names, Iâm expecting a strong performance from the Barclays investment banking division.

The big question is whether or not this is already reflected in the share price â and Iâm not convinced it is. But investors should look beyond the next 12 months when making decisions.

The stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1, which is unusually high for the firm. Thatâs not to say it canât go up with a strong 2026, but it does create a long-term challenge.

Barclays is going to need to achieve higher returns on equity than it has managed in previous years to justify that multiple. Itâs not impossible, but I donât see it as an obvious opportunity.

A short-term buy?

Iâm expecting the next year to be an unusually strong one for investment banking revenues. And I think this could drive the Barlcays share price higher in 2026.Â

My suspicion, though, is that this is likely to be a cyclical boost, rather than a more durable one. As a result, I donât really see this as a source of long-term consistent growth.

Thatâs what I look for with investment opportunities. And thatâs why Iâm focusing my attention elsewhere when it comes to stocks to buy.

The post Could the Barclays share price be the FTSE 100’s big winner in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Stephen Wright has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Barclays Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.