Is the S&P 500 heading for an epic stock market crash in 2026?
With the S&P 500 continuing to reach new record highs despite economic and geopolitical risks, fears are circulating that 2026 could be the year investors suffer another unpleasant round of volatility.
So, are the bears right? Here are my thoughts on the current chaotic market climate.
Will US stocks crash in 2026?
There are some justified causes for concern in the stock market right now.
The S&P 500 is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31 â almost double its long-term average. Meanwhile, the decline in employment and job quality is creating cracks in the US labour market. Throw in the expected pressure of US tariffs driving up costs, and the stage seems to be set for a potential recession later this year.
However, while valuations are undoubtedly lofty, they’re driven by expectations of robust earnings growth.
The latest consensus suggests that profits across the S&P 500 could rise by 14.6% this year before reaching 15% in 2027. By comparison, the average across the last decade has been closer to 8.6% suggesting that US stocks may not be as overvalued as some investors believe.
At the same time, continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with fresh economic stimulus through tax cuts coming later this year, a recession could ultimately be avoided.
That’s why I remain cautiously optimistic about 2026.
An emerging opportunity?
Despite economic pressures throughout 2025, US consumer spending has proved to be quite resilient, especially when it comes to e-commerce. And the Buy Now Pay Later platforms have definitely been helping out on that front.
Used correctly, these tools can drastically improve the affordability of higher-priced products. And one BNPL company that stands out is Sezzle (NASDAQ:SEZL).
Unlike other BNPL firms, Sezzle’s business model isn’t focused on building merchant relationships. Instead, it takes a consumer-first approach, where users pay a monthly subscription fee to use its BNPL solution at any merchant in America by leveraging a virtual or physical debit card.
This subscription-based business model has translated into the largest profit margins in the industry at 28.2% compared to Klarna‘s -10% and Affirm‘s 8.6%. And when combined with 67% revenue growth, earnings have been skyrocketing.
What’s more, this growth could accelerate in 2026 even if the labour market continues to weaken. After all, when household incomes fall, demand for alternative financing solutions rises.
My £15,000 contrarian US investment
The situation is a bit of a double-edged sword. If economic conditions deteriorate too much, credit losses for BNPL firms like Sezzle could expand rapidly as consumers fail to keep up with their payment plans.
By having an average loan duration of 42 days, the company can quickly adapt and adjust customer spending limits to prevent a runaway credit loss spiral â an advantage that traditional credit card companies don’t have. However, while financially prudent, this could significantly hamper growth, sparking unpleasant volatility.
Yet despite the group’s impressive profitability and rampant growth, Sezzle seems to be one of the few US stocks that’s still trading at a relatively modest valuation. Even after a recent 40% rally, the forward price-to-earnings ratio still stands at just 16.9, up from 12.8 when I began buying the shares. And at that price, the risk is worth considering in my opinion.
The post Is the S&P 500 heading for an epic stock market crash in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
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Zaven Boyrazian has positions in Sezzle. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
