Down 90%, is this penny stock on track for an explosive recovery in 2026?
Investing in penny stocks is a notoriously risky endeavour. But it can also offer some potentially game-changing returns for investors who can spot the diamonds in the rough. And in 2026, IQE (LSE:IQE) has already emerged as a big winner.
The semiconductor wafer manufacturer has had a rough time over the last five years, with around 90% of its market-cap wiped out. But since 2026 kicked off, the penny share has already surged by almost 55%, leaving index investors in the dust.
That means anyone who put £20,000 to work at the start of the year is already sitting on £11,000 of profit.
So whatâs going on? And should investors rush to buy shares while theyâre still below 10p?
From downturn to recovery
IQE shares underperformance since 2021 has been driven by a variety of complex factors. The introduction of 5G infrastructure was supposed to be a massive tailwind for this business, particularly for its gallium nitride wafers that are used in base station amplifies and radio frequency modules needed to access the 5G network.
However, due to supply chain disruptions, the rollout of 5G technology proved to be far slower than anticipated. And consequently, IQEâs sales stagnated while losses widened.
As such, the balance sheet began accumulating more debt, and management also issued new shares to raise capital and shore up the balance sheet. And with guidance missed, financial health tested, and shareholders diluted, it isn’t a major surprise to see the stock plummet.
But skip ahead to 12 January, and the penny stock erupted by over 40% in one day!
Thanks to a perfect influx of higher defence, AI, 5G, and hyperscaler spending, demand for IQEâs wafers is surging. Revenue guidance for its 2025 fiscal year was updated to £97m â towards the higher end of its previous £90m-£100m outlook. But more dramatically, the underlying earnings outlook has been significantly upgraded.
Previously, management expected to deliver anywhere between a £5m loss and a £2m gain. Now, it expects a profit of at least £2m.
Combining that with an improved cash position of £15.6m and a strong order book for the first quarter of 2026, the operational challenges that have plagued this business for years look like theyâre getting resolved.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see sentiment begin to shift drastically.
Time to buy?
IQEâs new-found revenue and earnings momentum are dependent on the AI and defence spending supercycle that’s recently emerged. So long as the geopolitical landscape remains tense and AI spending remains robust, 2026 could see even more explosive share price growth emerge before the end of the year.
However, that also means if AI spending drops due to lacklustre returns, or defence spending reverses as tensions ease, demand for IQE’s wafers could once again tumble.
Itâs also important to highlight that the balance sheet is still a bit fragile. And if unforeseen costs push underlying earnings back into the red, shareholders could find themselves diluted again.
Overall, this penny stock presents a distressed turnaround opportunity for growth investors with a high-risk tolerance. Itâs not a share Iâm personally tempted by right now, but definitely a business worth investigating further.
The post Down 90%, is this penny stock on track for an explosive recovery in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.
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Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
