By February 2027, £10,000 in BP shares could be worth…
Last week was another disappointing one for BP (LSE: BP) shares. They dipped more than 3.5% after the FTSE 100 oil giant dropped its quarterly $750m share buyback in full-year 2025 results on Tuesday (10 February).
Thatâs not a dramatic fall, but itâs part of a wider pattern. The BP share price is down slightly over one year and almost 18% over three. With growth stalling and buybacks scrapped, are investors running out of reasons to stick around?
The biggest issue is the oil price, with Brent crude currently idling around $67 a barrel. BP cited weaker prices as it pulled the buyback, adding that it wanted to strengthen the balance sheet.
FTSE 100 energy struggler
Its key income measure, underlying replacement cost profit, slumped to $1.5bn in Q4, although that was up 32% year on year. Full-year RC profit fell from $8.9bn in 2024 to $7.5bn, a drop of 15.7%, reflecting a 20% slide in Brent crude. There was also a $4bn write-down in renewables and biogas.
There could be worse ahead. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent will average $57.69 in 2026, then slide to $53 in 2027. That’s down from roughly $69 last year. BP can break even at around $40 a barrel, but if revenues and profits shrink, the share price usually follows.
Debt remains an issue at around $22.2bn. Asset disposals may help reduce it, but sale valuations could suffer if energy prices weaken. Shrinking debt becomes harder if cash flow slows.
BP is cutting capital expenditure, accelerating non-core disposals and upping structural cost saving targets to between $5.5bn and $6.5bn. Incoming chief executive Meg OâNeill faces a huge challenge when she takes charge in April.
No buyback, but still dividends
There’s still one clear reason to hold the shares: income. The dividend survived intact and currently yields 5.3%. I bought BP 18 months ago. Capital growth has been modest, but the income bumps me into positive territory. Even so, Iâm wondering whether there are better income stocks out there, ones that offer stronger growth prospects too.
BP has largely retreated from the green transition, failing to find a partner for its solar arm Lightsource BP and shelving hydrogen and carbon capture projects. Focusing on core oil and gas may make commercial sense, but it leaves the group heavily exposed to fossil fuels at a time of growing climate scrutiny. It seems unlikely to benefit much from any reopening of Venezuelan oil fields either.
Consensus broker forecasts set a one-year price target of 485p. If correct, that’s up around 5.7% from today’s 459p. Throw in the forecast 2026 year of 5.4%, and the total projected return climbs to 11.1%. That would turn a £10k investment into £11,110, if correct. That would be a decent result, in my view. But of course forecasts are just semi-educated guesses.
To be fair, the latest results showed resilience. The energy sector is cyclical and investors need patience. I plan to hold tight. But I canât ignore the lingering worry that BP could find itself on the wrong side of the climate debate. This means there are both short-term risks and longer-term ones too. Even with that yield, Iâd think carefully before considering buying BP today.
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Harvey Jones has positions in Bp P.l.c. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
