£7,500 invested in Aston Martin shares 5 weeks ago is now worth…
Would James Bond buy Aston Martin (LSE:AML) shares? A strange question perhaps, given that 007 is a fictional character and currently off our screens.
But the Aston Martin-driving spy is a notorious risk-taker, with a love of high-stakes poker games. With the FTSE 250 stock down 99% since IPO in 2018, I think you would have to be into high-risk, high-reward investments to consider Aston Martin.
Yet fellow British icon Rolls-Royce was in a similar situation during Covid, with its balance sheet weighed down by heavy debt and its survival in doubt. And Rolls-Royce stock has delivered a mind-blowing 3,000% return since its low in October 2000.
What are the chances that Aston Martin could do something similar?
A wealth-shredder
The last time I wrote about the stock five weeks ago, I marvelled at how it just keeps heading lower, even when the bottom seems to be near. Back then, it was trading for 60p, down from 108p a year earlier. Now it’s fallen to 40p.
A 20p drop might not sound much, but it’s enough to have turned a £7,500 investment made five weeks ago into roughly £5,000.
So, while Aston Martin makes beautiful speed machines, its stock has been nothing but a wealth-shredding machine.
The catalyst
A stock rarely loses a third of its value in five weeks for no reason, and the culprit here was the luxury carmaker’s preliminary financial results for 2025. The report opened with the words: “Navigated a highly challenging trading environment“.
The challenges included US tariffs, weak demand in China (Asia Pacific sales were down 21%), and fewer deliveries of the £1m Valhalla supercar than expected. Thankfully, the problems with Valhalla were down to production delays rather than demand issues.
Revenue slumped 21% to £1.26bn, with deliveries falling 10% to 5,448. The pre-tax loss increased from £289m to £364m. For context, back in 2020, Aston Martin set a 2024/25 revenue target of about £2bn, on 10,000 vehicles, with an adjusted EBITDA of £500m.
As bad as this sounds, the scariest part for investors was that net debt rose 19% to almost £1.4bn. The leverage ratio, which is net debt relative to adjusted EBITDA, exploded to 12.8 from 4.1.
This tips the carmaker’s balance sheet into distressed territory, which explains why the stock trades for pennies after crashing 66% in just 13 months.
Is a turnaround still possible?
Nevertheless, there were some bright spots, which could form the basis of a turnaround. Aston Martin now has a fresh line-up of new models, and 500 Valhalla deliveries planned for this year are expected to noticeably improve margins.
Meanwhile, a 20% cut in the workforce and lower five-year capital expenditures will help preserve cash. If 500 Valhalla deliveries are achieved, alongside a pick-up in the global luxury market, then a powerful share price recovery is possible.
However, as things stand, the odds of that look slim to me. Indeed, the outcome seems binary — either it will roar back if trading conditions suddenly improve, or carry on heading lower as investors worry about the company’s liquidity.
This might be the type of dicey gamble patriotic Bond would take after a few Martinis, but it’s not one I’m going to make as I aim to build wealth in my Stocks and Shares ISA.
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Ben McPoland has positions in Rolls-Royce Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Rolls-Royce Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
